By Shale Markets · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 4 min read

Haynesville Must Answer for a Storage Cushion Shrinking by 147 Bcf a Year

Original illustration created for Shale Markets.

South Central Gas Stocks Run 2.3% Below Normal as LNG Feedgas Climbs

South Central natural gas stocks stood at 1,168 Bcf as of October 23, 2026, running 2.3% below the five-year average even as the national total sat above normal, the EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report showed on October 29. That regional gap — in the storage region that feeds Gulf Coast LNG terminals directly — is the number that matters more than the national headline right now.

The national figure still looks comfortable on paper. Working gas in storage totaled 3,724 Bcf as of October 23 after a net injection of 80 Bcf for the week, 38 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,686 Bcf and 147 Bcf below the same week last year, according to the same EIA report. National comfort and regional deliverability have stopped being the same question, and the region that matters most for export economics is the one running short.

The feedgas behind the draw

That demand is no longer seasonal. U.S. LNG exports hit a record for the month of August 2026, delivering 16.61 Bcf/d to 34 countries, a 14.2% increase from August 2025, the EIA's Natural Gas Monthly reported on October 30. Total natural gas exports reached 27.13 Bcf/d that month, up 10.4% year-over-year, and electric power deliveries set a record for any month since 2001, averaging 50.19 Bcf/d. Both demand categories are now structural rather than seasonal, which changes how the South Central region behaves across an injection season that used to carry more slack.

Haynesville output moved the wrong way

Production in the Haynesville fell sharply across multiple pipelines and every major producing area in the basin, RBN Energy reported on September 22, 2026 — a basin-wide pullback, not a single operator's curtailment, arriving as liquefaction capacity along the coast keeps climbing. RBN did not quantify the decline in Bcf/d.

Expand Energy, the company formed by the Chesapeake-Southwestern merger, called for immediate Haynesville production increases in an October 28 statement reported by Reuters, arguing the Permian cannot carry the full weight of rising U.S. gas demand on its own. The company positioned the Haynesville as the swing supplier for the next wave of export capacity given its proximity to Gulf Coast terminals. ETF Trends, in an October 13 note, put a number behind that logic: roughly 20 Bcf/d of LNG capacity is now under construction on the Gulf Coast, and the Haynesville is expected to post the greatest production growth of any U.S. shale play over the next decade to help meet it. That estimate comes from a single commentary outlet and has not been independently confirmed.

The EIA's own outlook, published August 12, set a different figure against the same question: marketed natural gas production is forecast to average 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 2025's record of 118.5 Bcf/d, with growth concentrated in the Permian and Haynesville, and the agency flagged that production needs to ramp to keep pace with 15 Bcf/d of new liquefaction capacity by the end of 2028. That 15 Bcf/d figure measures new capacity commissioning through 2028; ETF Trends' 20 Bcf/d figure measures everything currently under construction on the Gulf Coast, a broader and longer window. The two numbers are not interchangeable, and a basin that just posted a basin-wide September decline is the one being asked to carry the load either way.

Midstream is building ahead of the molecules

Kinder Morgan reported a record natural gas project backlog of $13.2 billion in its October 21 earnings release, part of a $14.4 billion total expansion portfolio, with new joint-venture projects including the Permian Link and Southeast Connector approved to meet what the company called escalating demand. CEO Kim Dang told analysts on the October 21 call that storage assets have "never been in greater demand" to provide balancing services to the growing LNG market and to smooth the intermittency of renewable resources on the power grid. That is a midstream operator building balancing capacity ahead of the molecules, the opposite of what happened the last time U.S. gas infrastructure tried to catch up to export growth after the fact.

The spread between the national cushion and the South Central deficit is the number worth tracking into winter. The EIA's weekly report will keep showing a national figure near the five-year average for weeks yet. The regional number underneath it is the one that moves first if a cold snap collides with an LNG facility running at full feedgas rates.

Links Verified at Time of Publish.